YOUR GUIDE TO BEATING THE NFL POINTSPREAD
The True Odds
Why pay some sports service $$$$$$
to make your NFL picks for you, when you can do it yourself, week after week, year after year?
This guide is intended to help one develop a strategic approach to wagering on NFL games.
It uses situation handicapping and statistical analysis to identify trends that consistently pay off. And not ridiculous trends.
We once saw someone claim “In college football, Army is
What does that have to do with anything!!! That’s like saying the Lions should beat the Cardinals because a
bird has no chance
against a cat!
Each theory in this book is accompanied by an explanation as to why it makes sense that it could be valid.
FOR EXAMPLE: One of the greatest angles of all time, the Monday Night Home Dog.
THEORY: Take the home dog on Monday Night.
RATIONALE: Players are especially pumped up to perform before a nationally televised audience in front of their home fans and prove themselves to those who predicted that they would lose the game.
Each theory is then TESTED against our massive database of over 8000 regular season games.
TRENDS INCLUDE SUCH THINGS AS:
HOME FIELD ADVANTAGE, FAVORITES VERSUS DOGS,
OVERS AND UNDERS,
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL,
AFTER PLAYING ON MONDAY (THE SHORT PRACTICE WEEK)
THURSDAY NIGHT & THANKSGIVING,
EAST COAST TEAMS PLAYING ON THE WEST COAST,
SOUTHERN TEAMS PLAYING IN THE NORTH (IN DECEMBER)
TEAMS FOLLOWING SHUTOUTS,
AFTER SCORING A BUNCH OF POINTS,
UPSET LOSSES AND WINS,
WINNING STREAKS, LOSING STREAKS,
STREAKS AGAINST THE SPREAD,
FIRST WEEK OF THE SEASON,
TEAMS PLAYING EACH OTHER MORE THAN ONCE THE SAME YEAR,
TEAM’S PLAYING LAST YEARS SUPER BOWL PARTICIPANTS,
HOW TEAM’S PERFORM THE WEEK AFTER BEATING THE DEFENDING SUPER BOWL CHAMPS,
AND MUCH MORE!!!
Want to know how often a home favorite of 2.5 points covered the spread?
IT’S IN THERE!
(and I’ll bet it’s not as often as you think)
Want to know the longest regular season streak of games losing to the pointspread in a row?
IT’S IN THERE!
(It was the 1981 Baltimore Colts, by the way)
AN EXTENSIVE IN-
WITH ACTUAL HISTORICAL RESULTS OF EVERY POINTSPREAD “TEASED” BOTH WAYS!
WHEN TO TEASE THE FAVORITE, WHEN TO TEASE THE DOG,
WHEN NOT TO TEASE AT ALL!
INCLUDES 6, 6 1/2, 7 AND 7 1/7 POINT TEASERS,
10 POINT AND 13 POINT SWEETHEART TEASERS,
Even 21 POINT and SAME GAME TEASERS!
Stanford Wong’s and King Yao’s books got nothing on this!
UP TO DATE DATA INCLUDES ALL REGULAR SEASON GAMES FROM 1976 THROUGH LAST YEAR
The line is 8.5
Do you take the favorite -
Or the underdog +14.5?
There is a clear cut answer to this question.
And...IT’S IN THERE!
WHEN IT PAYS TO BUY POINTS,
AND MUCH, MUCH MORE!!!
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If you wager on NFL football, or you just want to win your office pool,
this is the stuff you need to know!
Get on T.O.P.
Stay on T.O.P.
True Odds Publications!!!
Do you have some ideas about trends that you’d like for us to test against our massive database?
Send them to us: email@example.com
(Remember, you must include your reasons why you think that the trend should work)
If we publish them in a future edition,
we’ll send you a free copy
2012 NFL RESULTS
AGAINST THE SPREAD
THE TRUE ODDS
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